Big Facts: History Says Changing Kicker = Playoffs
The LA Rams give up the fewest big plays.The Rams have been the best team in the NFL at limiting opponents big plays, allowing only 31 plays of 20-or-more yards on the season. Dallas, meanwhile, ranks fourth in the league with 64 plays of 20-plus yards offensively.
Are the Cowboys the best fourth-quarter team in the league? Obviously, it's a four-quarter game and the issues they're having early on have led to this 6-7 record. But if the Cowboys can somehow get to the fourth quarter with a lead, they should be in good shape. They rank second in the NFL in points allowed at just 45 in the fourth. They rank second in points scored in the fourth quarter with 114, and their 69-point advantage in the final quarter is the most among all 32 teams.
The Rams offense has been vulnerable to the blitz in 2019. On 144 pass attempts where the defense brought a blitz, the Rams are completing just 56.7% of their passes for five touchdowns, five interceptions and a 75.9 quarterback rating – 23rd in the NFL.
Changing kickers usually means playoffs for the Cowboys. Of the last five times the Cowboys have released a kicker in midseason in favor of another, the team has made the playoffs all but once. The first change occurred in 1993 as Eddie Murray not only replaced Lin Elliott, but hit arguably the most important field goal in regular-season history, beating the Giants en route to a Super Bowl title. Murray actually came back in 1999 to replace Richie Cunningham and the Cowboys snuck into the playoffs. Martin Gramatica was signed late in 2006 as the Cowboys made a Wild Card and Shaun Suisham filled in for Nick Folk in 2009. The only other time the Cowboys cut a kicker during the season for performance reasons was 2005 and they finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs on the final week of the season. Let's see if Kai Forbath replacing Brett Maher can help the Cowboys make it five out of six times.
Two of the greatest sack artists in Rams history will be in this game. Aaron Donald, of course, is skyrocketing up the charts, currently in third with 70.5 sacks, including 11 this year. But tied for fourth is current Cowboys' rusher Robert Quinn, who spent the first seven years of his career with the Rams, totaling 62.5 sacks, alongside Kevin Carter. Quinn leads the Cowboys with 9.5 sacks and is seeking his first double-digit sack season since 2014.
The Rams offensive attack has relied heavily on their ability to pick up significant yards after the catch. In 2019, the Rams have accumulated the second-most YAC in the league (1,731) which breaks down to 50.2% of their yards gained through the air.
Donald "sacks" running backs, too. Along with his 11 sacks this year, Donald has the NFL lead in tackles for loss with 18. The Cowboys only have 40 tackles for loss as an entire team, with DeMarcus Lawrence leading the team with eight.
Four of the last five opponents for the Cowboys have scored at least 26 points. The Cowboys defense, no matter how strong on paper or statistically, have recently struggled; especially against the run. The Rams are ranked 12th in the league in points per game, at 23.9, with a 4-2 road record.
Still winless vs. Top 10 defenses. We all know the Cowboys haven't beaten a team with a winning record this year and the Rams come to town with an 8-5 record. But the Cowboys also haven't beaten a team with a Top 10 defense, going 0-4. They've lost to the Patriots, Bills, Jets and Bears. And the Rams come in with the No. 8 total defense, allowing 325.5 yards per game.
Jalen Ramsey doesn't have picks, but he's increased the Rams' sack numbers. Just his presence alone has doubled the Rams' numbers sine he got to LA. In the six games before he arrived, the Rams had 12 sacks, averaging 2.0 per game. In the seven games he has played, the Rams have 30 sacks, averaging 4.2 sacks. Seems like there have been a few more coverage sacks going on with the Rams.
