FRISCO, Texas – As the Cowboys enter the final quarter of the season, their postseason hopes stay alive, but a lot of it rests on their own shoulders and whether or not they can win out the rest of the way.
At 6-6-1 heading into the last four games, a wildcard spot seems unlikely with the three current wildcard teams having at least nine wins. Barring a collapse from those at the top, winning the division continues to be the route in for Dallas.
Up first though is the Minnesota Vikings, who are coming off a shutout win over the Washington Commanders. How can the Cowboys get back in the win column? Let's break it down in this week's Here We Goooo:
End Aaron Jones' hot streak against Dallas
In his career, Aaron Jones has averaged 122 rushing yards per game and two touchdowns against the Cowboys in three regular season games and a postseason game. Clearly, Jones has had their number and now comes to visit with a different team in the Minnesota Vikings.
Through nine games this season, Jones has only rushed 81 times for 376 yards and a touchdown, certainly not similar to the 1,000+ yard rushing season he had for the Vikings in 2024. But don't be mistaken, the 31-year-old still has some juice left in the tank.
This, however, is probably the best chance that Dallas has had to finally end Jones' streak of 100+ yard games against this defense. Dallas' front has been one of the better units in the league against the run in recent weeks, but will need to do a better job of defending the outside after Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions made plenty of plays in the air and on the ground in that area of the field last week.
What helps the Cowboys is Minnesota's bottom-ten rushing offense, averaging just 104.2 yards per game on the ground. If Dallas can force the Vikings to beat them through the air, even with a passing defense that has been inconsistent at times, it'll give them the best chance to win this game.
Need to capitalize on turnover opportunities
Why would forcing the Vikings to pass be the best way for the Cowboys to win on Sunday night? Vikings rookie QB J.J. McCarthy has been inconsistent through the air, throwing ten interceptions compared to just nine touchdowns in only seven games played this season.
Accuracy has been an issue for McCarthy, as his -6.2% completion percentage over expected is second worst in the NFL among QBs with at least 200 dropbacks. His -106.4% win percentage added is the fourth-worst among QBs in the NFL, so the Cowboys will have their chances against McCarthy if they can make him uncomfortable.
The good news for Dallas' defense is McCarthy has especially struggled against zone coverage. When facing it, he's completed just 57.5% of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt, the lowest and third-lowest ranks in the NFL in their respective categories against zone. The Cowboys have used zone on 80.6% of their defensive snaps, the fifth-most in the NFL this season.
Where things could get tricky is on deep balls, an area that Dallas has struggled with this season giving up the second-highest completion percentage (48.9%), most yards (807), and are tied for the most touchdowns (9) allowed. At the same time, though, McCarthy is just 6/27 on passes 20+ yards through the air with 219 yards, a touchdown, and an NFL-leading five interceptions.
It's been four games since the Cowboys last had a defensive turnover, and Dallas sits at -8 in the turnover margin on the season, an area that head coach Brian Schottenheimer has been frustrated with in recent weeks. Sunday night provides them a chance to improve in that category.
Continue to beat the blitz at a high level
In one of his best seasons of his career, Dak Prescott has consistently done a good job of getting the ball out quickly against the blitz. On Thursday, he explained that a lot of it had to do with preparation during the week, which allows things to slow down for him during the game on Sundays.
Clearly, with 10 years of experience under his belt too, he's seeing things very well. Prescott is third in the NFL in passing yards against the blitz (1,1123), second in completion percentage (68.3%, min. 50 attempts) to go with nine touchdowns and two interceptions.
To expand upon that, Prescott has the second-most yards in the league when under pressure this year (1,018) and the second-highest completion percentage (60.8%). He and Patriots QB Drake Maye are the only QBs in the league with more than 1,000 yards thus far this season when under pressure.
Prescott will likely see that plenty on Sunday night, as the Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL (49.2% of the time) under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, known for his aggressiveness as a play caller. Minnesota has generated pressure on 40% of their pass rushes this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
So once again, Prescott will have to be on his P's and Q's with setting his offensive line and attaching TEs/RBs to their proper pass protection assignments in order to get the ball out quickly. Prescott has been hit a lot this season, so it's imperative that Dallas' front looks to keep him clean as much as possible.
