FRISCO, Texas – Let's make this real simple since we get this question all the time:
How can the 6-6-1 Cowboys make the playoffs, since that record has them among those on the outside "hovering" behind the top seven seeds in the NFC with four games to play.
Easy. But hard. Got to win out. Got to get to 10 wins. That is the hole they have dug for themselves.
That's the prerequisite.
Then there is more, and this part is out of their hands, because from a mathematical standpoint and a percentage standpoint, they will need help from other teams, always a tenuous situation to be in, at the mercy of someone else's success or another team's failure.
So, from a practical standpoint, wining the NFC East seems the most viable path into postseason play, meaning they have to overtake the Philadelphia Eagles, finding themselves in the midst of a three-game losing streak, one of those to the Cowboys the Sunday before Thanksgiving. They have gone from seemingly an untouchable 8-2 to now an anxiety-filled 8-5. So, now just 1½ games ahead of the .500 Cowboys.
But for the Cowboys to overtake the Eagles and prevent them from becoming the first NFC East team to repeat as champs since 2004, the Eagles must lose two of their final four games. Hey, who knows. The first-place Eagles final four games are against the 2-11 Raiders in Philly, at 3-10 Washington on a Saturday and at 9-4 Buffalo before finishing at home in the final game having to play the Commanders twice in three weeks.
Not out of the realm of possibilities for the Eagles to lose two of those four, but again out of the Cowboys hands.
Meaning if the Cowboys finish 10-6-1 and the Eagles finish 10-7, the Cowboys win the East by a half game, that tie with Green Bay becoming the deciding factor.
Now then, if that doesn't happen, the odds of becoming one of the three wildcard teams, even the third one, seem quite long. Once again, the Cowboys must run the table on the final four games. Currently among the non-division leaders there are five teams with better records than the Cowboys: Seattle 10-3, Chicago 9-4, San Francisco 9-4, Detroit 8-5 and Carolina 7-6, and let's remember the Bears, Lions and Panthers already hold the head-to-head advantage over the Cowboys. That means if the Cowboys win 10 games, they will need Seattle to lose out, Chicago and San Francisco to lose three of their last four to potentially jump into the top three. But also would need the Lions to split their final four games to finish 10-7 and Carolina to lose at least one more game to also finish no better than 10-7.
You would have a better shot of winning one of those in-game Half-and-Half raffles than jumping three of those five teams no matter how many tickets you buy.
- Here We Go: Maybe Dak Prescott needs to reinstall this line of scrimmage cue to now the start of games, because of late the Cowboys continually have gotten off to slow starts that I keep harping on. Check this out, going in reverse order over the last five games with the Cowboys falling behind in all five. The Lions took a 17-6 lead on the Cowboys. The Chiefs 7-0. The Eagles 21-0. The Raiders 3-0. And Arizona 10-0. Add that up. Over the past five games the Cowboys have fallen behind by a combined score of 58-6, amazingly enough recovering to go 3-2 in those games, beating the Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs. In fact, the last time the Cowboys took a lead to start a game was in Denver, 3-0, but in due time fell behind, 14-3 to the Broncos in that loss, which would bring the six-game total to 72-9. And judging what the defense has done on those first possessions, probably need to take the ball if winning the coin toss. Here is the opponent scoring to start games: Broncos, interception, touchdown, touchdown; Cardinals field goal; Raiders punt, field goal, field goal; Eagles touchdown, touchdown, touchdown; Chiefs touchdown, touchdown; Lions field goal, punt, touchdown. Might need to set some alarm clocks to wake these dudes up.
- Returns To Senders: Maybe the Cowboys just need to have Brandon Aubrey simply send those kickoffs into the end zone and settle for the touchback that brings the ball out to the 35. Because Thursday night the Lions had eight kickoff returns for 261 yards, averaging 32.6 yards a return. The Lions ended up with returns for 30 yards, 40, 27, 26, 29, 29, 41, 42. And all three times the Lions began a possession after a kickoff from their 47, 41 and 49, they scored a touchdown. And let's not forget the 21-yard punt return after Bryan Anger's 62-yard punt from his end zone to the Cowboys 42 that set up another touchdown. Got to tighten up, though heard some overlooked holding taking place.
- On The Run: Who out there thought the Cowboys would have at least a 1,300-yard rusher when they began training camp with the likes of Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders, Jaydon Blue, Hunter Luepke, Deuce Vaughn and Phil Mafah in the running back room? Well, with four games to go Williams has 1,022 yards rushing and nine rushing touchdowns. The Broncos former second round draft choice is on pace to finish with 1,336 rushing yards, a franchise high over these past six seasons and 22 yards shy of the most over the past seven seasons. In fact, a total of 1,358 would be the fourth highest total over the past 25 seasons. Think about that. The only ones higher belong to DeMarco Murray (1,845 in 2014) and Ezekiel Elliott's 1,631 in 2016 and 1,434 in 2018, though with an asterisk since the 17-game seasons began in 2021. Also, there is this: Williams has rushed for nine touchdowns in 13 games, on pace for nearly 12. If Williams should reach 12, that would equal the most rushing touchdowns since Elliott's 15 in 2016. Certainly an improbable run.
- Shot Trimmings: This just occurred to me going forward, with the Cowboys playing their next two games at home on a Sunday, and then four days later playing at the Commanders on Christmas Day while Washington plays Philly at home on Saturday the 20th and then the Cowboys five days later at home without having to travel for either game, yet another scheduling giggle for the computer . . . Good that not only did CeeDee Lamb practice on a limited basis on Wednesday coming off his concussion, and will need to participate in practice again on Thursday without any residual effects to clear protocol, but also limited on Wednesday were Jadeveon Clowney and Trevon Diggs, good signs . . . Still out unfortunately was starting left tackle Tyler Guyton, working off to the side on the resistance cords, trying to recover from that high ankle sprain and guessing hard pressed to be back in time to face the Vikings but four days to go . . . While the Vikings (5-8) shutout the Commanders 31-0 this past Sunday, they previously had lost four straight during their grueling stretch of facing Baltimore, Chicago, Green Bay and Seattle . . . Despite having Pro Bowl wide receiver Justin Jefferson, Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy staring just seven of 13 games due to injury this rookie season, has a 67.4 QB rating, mostly because of nine TD passes and 10 interceptions and completing just 56 percent of his passes . . . How's this for peas in a pod, Lamb and Jefferson are the only two players in NFL history with at least 550 receptions and 7,000 receiving yards in their first six seasons, Lamb at 553 catches for 7,204 yards.
And for this week's final words we turn to head coach Brian Schottenheimer when addressing the status of cornerback Trevon Diggs, who has missed the past seven games, six of those on injured reserve, and this week only his second week of having return to practice with one week to go before having to decide if indeed he will move to the 53 or remain out for the final two games of the season.
The Cowboys also have to be careful when Diggs returns since they have only two more of the allotted eight return from IR moves available and having to weigh against who they also might need to return if an injury occurs at another position or two.
Soooo, here's Schotty on Diggs:
"He's still in the ramp up period. I think he does feel healthy, he wants to play, but at the end of the day we have to do what we think is in the best interest of not just him but also the football team. He missed some time; there is a ramp up period that's good not just for your body but for your mind, figuring out the defense, and there are some new faces in the huddle.
Again, love him as a player but ultimately, he's got to show us he's ready to do everything the right way."
To get his shot, simple as that.
