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FRISCO, Texas — OK, let's make this one quick, shall we? Normally, I'd either use my weekly Science Lab column to point out trends in one direction or the other, dissect analytics and uncover tidbits most might have missed in the Dallas Cowboys' performance to that point in the season — not today, though.
This week, as the Cowboys sit at 3-4-1 after being trampled by the Denver Broncos only one week after they showed some very real progress in slapping around the Washington Commanders, there's a word that, when I heard it, stuck in my craw (a thorn in my side for you Northerners).
"Absolutely."
That was the answer provided by the Cowboys' front office when asked this week if the team is still a playoff-caliber group. Now, are they eliminated from playoff contention at 3-4-1, or even 3-5-1, if they lose to the Arizona Cardinals?
Absolutely not, and that's a fact, not a feeling.
And while I can appreciate some well-placed optimism colored by full context that includes help being on the way — e.g., DeMarvion Overshown, Perrion Winfrey, Cooper Beebe — nothing, at all, indicates the Cowboys will make the playoffs.
This isn't a glass half full or half empty quandary. It's a numbers thing, a simple objective assessment of a definite versus a reality that is far from it, so let's first define the word:
Absolutely: 1. with no qualification, restriction, or limitation; totally. 2. independently; not viewed in relation to other things or factors.
That doesn't exactly sound like this Cowboys' team through the first eight weeks of the 2025 season. Lacking so much as a two-game win streak and with a No. 1 offensive attack that is strapped to the 32nd-ranked defense in the league, and one that now has serious depth issues at safety,
The state of affairs are as such, folks:
Chances of Making the Playoffs (Week 9)
- Current - 24%
- W vs. Cardinals - 27%
- L vs. Cardinals - 15%
In actuality, the Cowboys are so deep in the hole that taking the win against the Cardinals on Monday Night Football to get back on track and to a somewhat .500 record (that tie interferes with the math there), they won't gain significant ground — increasing their chances of making the playoffs by only three percent.
"Absolutely."
However, if they lose to the Cardinals, there becomes an 85 percent chance they miss the playoffs entirely, and regardless of a win or loss, the toughest part of their schedule hasn't even happened yet, but rather awaits them after the bye and going into the holiday season.
Not that they can afford to overlook the Las Vegas Raiders (remember the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers?), after that contest comes the following, in order:
- vs. Eagles (6-2)
- vs. Chiefs (5-3)
- at Lions (5-2)
- vs. Vikings (3-4)
- vs. Chargers (5-3)
- at Commanders (3-5)
- at Giants (2-6)
Admittedly, of all those teams, I'd say only the Chiefs and Lions are ones who, at the Cowboys' offensive best, can match serve against a solid or better defense. But since the Cowboys do not have even a remotely a solid defense so far, but rather one that is swimming in historically-worst categories at the moment (can they change this?), and that means any of the teams on that list — including those below .500 right now — pose a threat to have a career day when they face Dallas.
"Absolutely."
They nearly defeated the Eagles in Week 1 and that was with the defense playing well to open the season, but this ain't that and that ain't this; and maybe that's something a trade (or two) can help to resolve in conjunction with help being on the way from inside the building.
My concern is that "absolutely" could create an unrealistic sense of comfort and hope that shouldn't be present as the window begins closing on a season that is seeing Dallas field one of the best offenses in franchise history, but time will tell; and even head coach Brian Schottenheimer isn't in the mood to hear about how well his offense is mostly playing:
"None of us have done good enough — coaches, players, head coach — none of us. That's real. Our scorecard is what it is, and that's not just defensively, that's offensively. We're a football team that's 3-4-1. You can take the stats on offense and shove 'em up your ass, as far as I'm concerned. It is what it is. We wanna win."
And there it is, the bottom line.
Playing the high-powered Lions in Detroit feels like nightmare fuel, and if the Cowboys somehow find a way to mount up (improbable, but not absolutely impossible) to remain in the Wild Card picture entering Week 17, they may find themselves in a war with the Commanders for that final playoff spot, and/or they find themselves trying to keep Jaxson Dart (whom they haven't played yet) from playing spoiler in Week 18.
I don't know, Jim.
"Absolutely."
What I do know is that there is help on the way, and that, theoretically, the Cowboys' defense should be better on paper after the bye than it's been to this point, and that Dallas' offense won't have many bad days at the office like it did in Denver, but also that demanding Dak Prescott and his stable of weapons, and its playcaller, be perfect every single rep of every single game is neither achievable nor sustainable.
And yet, that's exactly what they'll have to be to creep their lowly odds of making the playoffs higher, incrementally, each week going forward. All hope isn't lost yet, and the math hasn't shut the Cowboys out of the postseason as Week 9 gets underway, but those are the only two things that are … absolutely … true.
The rest involves fighting for dear life, and that fight won't be won with one swing, and not for a team that's tangled in the ropes; but I suppose that means there's only one thing left to do: win the whole f*ing thing.
Because anything short of that will absolutely be disappointing.
