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Mailbag: Predicting The Pick? Jarvis Landry?


I've followed these mock drafts for years now and I've come to the conclusion that most teams, especially the Cowboys, use it as smokescreen. For instance: Greg Ellis instead of Randy Moss, Zeke Elliott instead of Jalen Ramsey and most recently Micah Parsons instead of Patrick Surtain. Can you guys actually remember who was the last person we drafted that mock drafts actually projected we would? – DION RASBERRY / GREENSBORO, NC

David: I think the reality is just that mock drafts are an educated guess about something that's nearly impossible to predict. For instance, I'm incredibly confident that Patrick Surtain or Jaycee Horn would have been the Cowboys' pick last year – it's just that they got snatched away right in front of them. In other instances, I think it comes down to the opinions of the people in the War Room, and that can be just as tough to predict as what another team is going to do. To answer your question more directly, a lot of people had a suspicion in 2018 that Leighton Vander Esch would be their pick at No. 19 overall, and that's exactly what wound up happening.

Rob: Yeah, Vander Esch was a pretty popular mock selection in 2018. Same with Zeke in 2016 and Tyron Smith in 2011. The earlier they pick, the easier it is to project. When you're drafting in the 20s you're at the mercy of all the teams in front of you. Unless the Cowboys are willing to trade up several spots like they did to draft Morris Claiborne in 2012, they're going to have to wait and see how the board shakes out. But I don't think the Cowboys are necessarily creating a smokescreen. They're not the ones writing the mock drafts. And many past Cowboys first-round picks went on official pre-draft visits to Dallas.

I was curious, since it was made known Dallas has been somewhat aggressive in looking for another veteran receiver, why Jarvis Landry's name hasn't even been tossed around. He's known for route running and working the middle, figured he would at least garner a little attention. – EDDIE ARNOLD / HUNTINGTON, TX

David: It is interesting how little we've heard about Landry since he was released by the Browns. My guess is that he's seeking a much larger contract than teams want to give a 29-year-old receiver who missed time due to injury last year. Not to mention, this is also the time of year when teams would rather focus on finding cheaper, younger talent in the draft. I bet we'll see him sign somewhere once the dust has settled after the draft, when teams have a chance to re-assess their needs. Who knows, maybe he could even sign here in Dallas – depending on his asking price, of course.

Rob: Yeah, when you get to the second week of April, this is usually when teams are willing to see how the draft unfolds before circling back to a position in free agency. I'm not 100% sure the Cowboys are done in free agency until the draft ends, but that could be the case. No doubt Landry is going to find another team. I agree with Dave that it might take until May, though.

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