Mailbag: Trade down from No. 12 to add picks?

(Editor's Note: Time to check the mail! The DallasCowboys.com staff writers answer your questions here in 'Mailbag' presented by Miller Lite.)

The lack of a fourth-round pick needs to be addressed by either trading back eight to 10 spots (assuming they get offers) or using the later-round picks in a package to move up to the fourth. I would prefer to move back and get at least a third-round pick, if not better, and save those fifth- and sixth-round picks for taking shots at players with potential to contribute. What would you do? They could get a starter at, say, No. 20 and add another starter with the extra pick inside the top 100 picks?– Michael King/Joilet, IL**

Nick: I don't agree with that logic at all. The difference of picking No. 12 or No. 20 seems greater than having a fourth-round pick or not. There are other ways to get a fourth, like moving down in the second or trading a third for a fourth and a fifth - things like that. What I don't think about trading down from No. 12 is that seems to be right in the sweet spot for players with first-round grades. Some years there has only been 11 or 12 guys with first-round grades. Some other years it can be as high as 18 or 20. Who knows about it this year but I do know that I wouldn't trade out of a spot that could prevent me from getting a first-round player.

If the Cowboys are on the clock at No. 12 and there's a chance to move down about 5 spots and there are still 5 guys on their board with first-round grades, then I might consider, depending on what else the compensation looks like. But if you move down from No. 12, it's probably going to cost a team a second-round pick or maybe a 3rd and a 4th.

One way or another, you've got a first-round pick at No. 12. You should get a first-round player that you like. I'd make sure and land one at all costs. That's the most important thing to me.

Kurt: Because the Cowboys have so many needs and will have so many options at pick No. 12, to me the best-case scenario would be what happened during the 2021 draft. Remember, that's when the Cowboys only had to move back two spots to pick up another choice in the top 100, trading their 10^th overall pick to the Eagles for the 12^th and 84^th overall selections. Dallas then drafted Micah Parsons and Chauncey Golston with those picks.

Many believe that the draft can be such a crapshoot that the more picks a team owns, the better chance it has of hitting on stud players. Then, of course, there is the quality over quantity opinion that the higher a club picks, the better its chances to grab a future star.

Over the last 10 years, the Cowboys have had 32 picks in the top 100. Of those, eight players eventually went to at least one Pro Bowl while nine total were signed to a second contract (with more to come). Narrowing it down further, six of those Pro Bowlers were drafted in the first round.

During that same span, 54 players were taken outside the top 100 with five earning a least one trip to the Pro Bowl – four selected in the fourth round and one in the fifth. And among those 54, only six were signed (so far) to a second deal with two, Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz, spending an extra season on the franchise tag.

The Cowboys enter this draft with 10 picks overall but just three in the top 100. So based on the numbers, it would seem that if the Cowboys are unable find a dance partner to drop a few spots in the first round and pick up another top-100 slot, then trying to package some of those lower picks to move back up would indeed be wise.